Catch rates for both Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and dagaa (Rastrineobola argentea) from Kenyan waters of Lake Victoria have steadily increased through the 1980s, even though the fishing effort also increased during the same period. However, analysis of catch and effort data within and outside the Nyanza Gulf suggests an increase in catch rates due to a shift in effort from the inshore Gulf region to higher catch rates in the offshore region, rather than an increase in abundance. Analysis of catch rates by gear type both in and outside the Nyanza Gulf show that 1991 catch rates are lower than 1989 levels by 60-80% in some instances. Since the fishing power of these gears has increased during this period, it is likely that fish abundance declined more than catch rates. A dynamic population model is used to stimulate Nile perch dynamics. It indicates that a decline in catches should be anticipated.