There is an unusual relationship between catch per unit effort and effort in the Lake Kariba sardine (Limnothrissa miodon) fishery. This is apparently a results of ecological changes in the lake following the decline of the Salvinia mats that existed there until 1973. Predictive models based on the entire data set (1974-89) are of limited value because they are influenced by the rapid decline in catch per unit effort that took place from 1974 to 1978. A model based on the 1980-89 data indicates that the current catch could be increased substantially. Some empirical models and features of the sardine's biology suggest that it is a realistic model.