Global nutrition targets are slipping further out of reach, with over half of preschool-aged children and two-thirds of non-pregnant women worldwide suffering from micronutrient deficiencies. Now, a new study co-authored by WorldFish scientists, published in Environmental Research Letters, reveals how climate change is compounding this crisis by disrupting the availability of essential micronutrients like calcium, iron, vitamin A, folate, and B12. The study goes beyond staple crops, shedding light on the vulnerability of a wide range of foods – from aquatic foods to fruits, vegetables, nuts, legumes, and livestock – and the vital nutrients they provide.
The findings are sobering. By 2050, more than 50% of the current global population will face high risks to at least one of the five key micronutrients studied. Nearly 50 countries are at risk for multiple micronutrients, while ten countries, including Afghanistan, Madagascar, and Guatemala, face risks to all five.
“To date, most studies on climate change and food security have focused on a handful of staple crops, ignoring the nutrient-rich foods that supply most of our essential micronutrients. Our findings show that climate change will pose a substantial threat to achieving the nutrition and health targets of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. This detailed analysis can help countries identify the most effective entry points to climate-proofing their nutrient supply and help funders direct resources to those most at risk.” said Dr. Michelle Tigchelaar, WorldFish Climate Lead and lead author of the study.
The study combines data on future heat and drought extremes, reliance on domestic food production, and population vulnerabilities such as poverty, micronutrient deficiencies, and limited dietary diversity. This approach provides a clearer picture of which countries are most at risk, why, and where action is most urgently needed.
The research offers data-driven solutions to support the resilience of micronutrient supply across food systems. These include promoting climate-resilient food production on land and in water, diversifying production systems, strengthening food supply chain infrastructure, expanding social safety nets, and climate-proofing trade and public health policies.
“This research is a significant step forward in understanding the links between climate change, food production, and nutrition. It shows the critical need for integrated strategies that address the impacts of climate change across all food groups,” said Dr. Edward Allison, co-author and WorldFish Principal Scientist.
This study is a collaboration between WorldFish and leading global institutions, including Stanford University, Columbia University, and the Environmental Defense Fund.
The full paper, “Nutrition-sensitive climate risk across food production systems”, is available HERE